Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena: Styles, Winning Chances & Full Prediction
The upcoming main event at UFC 322 (15 Nov 2025, Madison Square Garden, New York) pits the reigning welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena (JDM) against former lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, who has moved up in weight to challenge for the 170 lb title.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of each fighter, how their styles match up, what factors could decide the fight, and a prediction based on current evidence.
Islam Makhachev
Background & Record
- Pro record: 27‑1.
- Dominant in the lightweight division, now moving up to welterweight to attempt two‑division reign.
Style & Strengths
- Grappling: Trained in sambo and Dagestani wrestling lineage; top control, positional pressure, and submissions are his main tools.
- Striking: Improved striking with a recent head‑kick knockout; can use it to set up takedowns.
- Fight IQ: Excellent at controlling pace and rhythm, chain wrestling, and tactical decision-making.
Weaknesses / Questions
- Moving up in weight means facing bigger opponents with more power.
- Historically not a high-volume knockout artist; could struggle if unable to implement grappling.
- If takedowns are defended successfully, he may have trouble imposing his game plan.
Jack Della Maddalena
Background & Record
- Pro record: 18‑2.
- Current UFC Welterweight Champion; won the title by defeating Belal Muhammad in May 2025.
Style & Strengths
- Striking: Switch stance, 73″ reach, known for pressure, combinations, and knockout power.
- Takedown Defence: Effectively neutralized takedowns in his title win.
- Athletic Prime & Momentum: Confident, young, and in peak form.
Weaknesses / Questions
- Grappling credentials are improving but still not at elite level.
- Vulnerable in prolonged ground exchanges against top grapplers like Makhachev.
- Must avoid being controlled or fatigued by grappling-heavy strategies.
Style Matchup: Striker vs. Wrestler
Makhachev’s Game Plan
- Secure takedowns and control the fight on the mat.
- Use improved striking to set up grappling entries.
- Avoid wild striking exchanges where JDM has power and volume.
- Manage weight and strength differences by leveraging skill and control.
Della Maddalena’s Game Plan
- Keep the fight standing; prevent prolonged grappling.
- Use switch stance, reach, and striking volume to pressure Makhachev.
- Be ready for scrambles and defend against submissions.
- Punish sloppy grappling attempts with strikes or counters.
Winning Chances & Key Scenarios
Odds & Market Sentiment
- Bookmakers favor Makhachev (approx. 1.40) vs JDM (approx. 3.00).
- Analysts note JDM’s striking and momentum could still make it competitive.
Edge to Makhachev
- Grappling dominance, fight IQ, and well-rounded skills.
- Can control large portions of the fight and submit or win by decision.
Edge to Della Maddalena
- Striking superiority, knockout power, and size advantage.
- Can win if he keeps the fight upright and applies constant pressure.
Key Scenarios
- Makhachev dominates grappling → submission or decision win.
- JDM keeps it standing, lands big shots → KO or decision win.
- Mixed affair → adaptability and cardio decide the winner.
- Weight/class impact → size could help JDM; experience and control favor Makhachev.
Prediction
According to Cryptopia’s analysis, Islam Makhachev is predicted to win via submission in the mid-rounds. Given Jack Della Maddalena’s striking threat, Makhachev is expected to prioritize his grappling throughout the fight. His superior wrestling and submission skills should allow him to take the fight to the mat, control the action, and secure a submission victory, capitalizing on his ability to neutralize Della Maddalena’s stand-up power.
If you enjoyed this fight breakdown, you might also like our deep dive into why Merab Dvalishvili is considered the GOAT of bantamweight and what’s next for “The Dobronx” after his impressive win against Mateusz Gamrot. Discover his unique fighting style, relentless pace, and potential future matchups that could cement his legacy in the division.
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